Apple's position as the dominant force in the global true wireless stereo (TWS) earbud market is expected to continue through 2025, according to Counterpoint Research.
The forecast outlines a 3% year-over-year increase in global TWS unit shipments for 2025, signaling a transition from rapid growth to a more mature phase for the category. While Apple is set to remain the leading brand by revenue and brand recognition, the report suggests that volume growth will be led by lower-priced models under $50 from other brands, driven by emerging markets and replacement demand.
Counterpoint attributes Apple's continued strength to the introduction the AirPods Pro 3, which is expected to see strong demand among existing users. The new model is rumored to include enhanced immersive audio and health-related features.
However, due to the AirPods Pro's relatively high price point compared to competitors in the market, they're unlikely to drive growth. In fact, Apple is expected lose market share very slightly this year. "A more noticeable increase in volume is expected around 2027, when the standard AirPods and a new ANC-equipped version are released," Counterpoint added.
Counterpoint notes that while Apple remains unmatched in the premium segment, its unit volume growth is increasingly threatened by value-oriented brands such as Xiaomi and JBL, both of which are projected to record double-digit year-over-year shipment growth in 2025. Xiaomi's success is credited to its low-cost pricing strategy and broad global distribution network, while JBL has gained traction in markets like India by offering trusted mid-tier products with aggressive pricing and discounts.
Counterpoint believes that the broader TWS market now mirrors the trajectory of the smartphone sector, with replacement cycles lengthening and demand increasingly tied to ecosystem features and regional price dynamics.
