Apple and Samsung are best equipped to handle rising memory chip costs that could drive down global smartphone shipments by 2.1% in 2026, according to new data from Counterpoint Research.
In its latest projection for the smartphone market next year, the firm has downgraded its forecast from a previously expected 0.45% growth, citing a memory shortage that has pushed component costs up 10% to 25%. Chinese brands like Honor and Oppo are said to face greater pressure due to lower profit margins, particularly in the entry-level segment where costs have jumped 20% to 30% since early 2025.
"Apple and Samsung are best-positioned to weather the next few quarters," said Counterpoint senior analyst Yang Wang. "But it will be tough for others that don't have as much wiggle room to manage market share versus profit margins."
The memory crunch is being caused by chip manufacturers prioritizing advanced memory for AI servers over basic DRAM used in smartphones. The shift has already created supply constraints, and Counterpoint expects they will persist through 2026.
Based on the data, Counterpoint says average smartphone prices could rise 6.9% globally next year as manufacturers pass costs to consumers or push buyers toward premium models. Some brands may downgrade other specs like cameras or ship devices with less memory to offset the impact, but ultimately Apple's supply chain clout and vast cash reserves are expected to shield it from these more extreme compromises. Analysts expect Apple to absorb higher DRAM costs in the short term without immediately adjusting retail prices.
